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Forecast updated with auctions up to 1 Oct 2026. It updates again as soon as new auction results come in.
Every day, before the next auction, we predict its average price. Here is each prediction next to the real price.
What it shows: The real price landed inside our likely range on 93 of the last 120 auction days. On average our guess was off by 1.7% (just repeating the last price was off by 1.7%).
Predictions from 28 Sep 2026 onwards were saved before each auction. Earlier ones are recreated with the same method, using only data available at the time.
What it shows: The most likely price in 12 weeks is ₹3,308, a little higher than now. It could reasonably be anywhere from ₹3,054 to ₹3,783.
Each bar shows how much one factor pushes the price up (blue) or down (red) in the all-factors method. Together they make its guess of +17.2% in 12 weeks. It currently gets 23% of the say in the final forecast, because the say depends on how accurate each method has been lately.
Several methods make a guess, and the final forecast mixes them. A method that has been closer to the real price recently gets a bigger share. The shares change every time new prices come in.
Time of year, rain in the past months, and how far the price is from its recent average.
Assumes the price stays where it is now.
Everything: recent direction, supply, share sold, rain, festivals and time of year.
The price at the latest auction.
The average of the last 3 auctions.
Carries on a little of the last week's rise or fall.
The average of the last 6 auctions.
We pretended to be back in each week of the last year, made a guess using only what was known then, and checked it against what really happened.
| Weeks ahead | Our guess missed by | “No change” missed by |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| 4 | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 8 | 5.3% | 5.7% |
| 12 | 6.5% | 7.4% |
Our guess beat “no change” for 7 of 12 time spans. On average it missed by 5.1%, against 5.4% for “no change”. So it is a little better than guessing no change, mostly for a month or more ahead.