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For each factor, we sorted all the months (or weeks) from lowest to highest and split them into five equal groups, from “very low” to “very high”. Each bar shows whether the price rose more than usual (blue, above the line) or less than usual (red, below the line) in that group.
If the bars go steadily up or down from left to right, that factor really affects the price. If they jump around with no pattern, it doesn’t.
What it shows: The clearest links to price are rain, heat and dry spells.
| Factor | What we found | How strong |
|---|---|---|
| Supply → | More cardamom at auction means a lower price. 10% more supply goes with a price about 1.4% lower. Based on: how much cardamom came to auction, compared with the same month last year | No clear link |
| Rain → | Rain from about 6 months ago matters most. Wetter than the year before went with higher prices. Based on: rain in earlier months, compared with the year before | Clear link |
| Heat → | Hot spells from about 10 months ago matter most. More very hot days than the year before went with higher prices: heat stresses the plants and cuts the next crop. Based on: very hot days (above about 29 °C) in earlier months, compared with the year before | Clear link |
| Dry spells → | Dry spells from about 7 months ago matter most. Longer dry spells than the year before went with higher prices. Based on: the longest run of days without rain in earlier months, compared with the year before | Clear link |
| Demand → | Buyers take almost everything most weeks, so this tells us very little about where the price goes next. Based on: the share of cardamom that sold each week, and the price the next week | No clear link |
| Time of year → | Usually highest in August (about 8.4% above normal) and lowest in May (about 10.2% below). Based on: the usual price in each month, compared with normal | usual pattern |
| Festivals → | The price rises most before Raksha Bandhan (about 10.1% more than usual). Many festivals make no real difference. Based on: the price in the month before each festival, compared with a usual month | usual pattern |
Groups by: How much cardamom came to auction, compared with the same month last year. Bars: The price, compared with the same month last year, compared with usual.
Groups by: How much rain fell about 6 months before, compared with the year before. Bars: The price, compared with the same month last year, compared with usual.
Groups by: How many very hot days there were about 10 months before, compared with the year before. Bars: The price, compared with the same month last year, compared with usual.
Groups by: The longest run of days without rain about 7 months before, compared with the year before. Bars: The price, compared with the same month last year, compared with usual.
Groups by: The share of cardamom that sold this week. Bars: The price change the next week, compared with usual.
How much more than usual the price rose in the month before each festival. Averaged over past years.